Pakistan is facing serious existential threat when it goes to fight militants in Swat. If we win this war, we can win the war against terrorism. If we get defeated, terrorism will walkover whole of Pakistan in coming months.
The only similarity to this war is beginning of muslim war against Chengiz Khan and subsequent spread of mongolian hordes:
"Chengiz Khan started war by using his horsemen to carry out lootings and killings on muslim frontiers. This annoyed muslim king , who went after Chengiz Khan with a mighty force of 300,000 soldiers. Chengiz Khan trapped this force in mountains virtually destroying this force and this broke down the back bone of muslim defence. This ensured that Chengiz and mongolian hordes went on a winning offensive virtually unopposed by any serious force through large parts muslim world and europe."
The same applies to fight in Swat. Taliban have deliberately annoyed and invited Pakistan's army into the Swat. Now taliban seem to be losing and moving back to Swat from Buner and other areas. Pakistan army has limited mobility of movement in Swat, and no experience, knowledge and preparation for street to street fighting. Pakistan army is still unable to stop FM radio operated by Taliban.
If Pakistan army rush large number of troops without adequate strategy, equipment, support and intelligence Taliban will surely kill large number of them through ambushes, improvised explosive devices and mines. The result will be demoralized army which will not be able to hold onto whole of NWFP on one hand and rest of Pakistan on the other hand as well.
Americans and their allies are hoping for exactly this kind of scenario where Taliban inflict heavy defeat on Pakistan army. This would allow them to force their conditions on Pakistan, foremost of which will be de-nuclearization to stop nuclear weapons from falling into Taliban hands. Such a deal may be offered to Pakistan in return for protection against india and for military support against Taliban.
Since Americans want to ensure Pakistan to be defeated by terrorist, therefore they are unwilling to extend any meaningful military help to Pakistan including provision of large number of attack and transportation helicopters, drones, jamming/listening equipments for FM and other communications, night goggles and so on. At the same time, Americans are pushing Pakistan to shun every option of dialogue for peace and go blindly into a war in which there is only death and destruction for Pakistan.
Pakistan army has to be very careful while moving into Swat.
1). They should move very slowly ensuring lowest possible causalities and losses.
2). Pakistan army should force Taliban to come out and attack them thus trapping them in pitched battles, which Pakistan army hopefully will win with minimum losses to Pakistan army and total annihilation for Taliban.
3). Pakistan army should block all exit routes for Taliban.
4). There should be no take prisoners strategy in this fight.
5). Pakistan army should go for slow, safe and effective strategy rather than rushing in. Only through patience we can ensure that Taliban make maximum number of mistakes and thus ensure crushing defeat for Taliban.
6). We should employ a make or break security strategy where we are partners in war on terror only if Americans and their allies provide us real and meaningful help and do not stab in the back in these testing times.
7). Pakistan army should dialogue and surrender options to Taliban and apply maximum pressure to divide Taliban ranks.
American strategy of ensuring Pakistan's defeat at the hands of Taliban may or may not mean denuclearization of Pakistan. This strategy may result in nuclear weapons, biological weapons and other weapons of mass destruction and expertize involved in producing these into the hands of Taliban and their allies Al-Qaeda. It is upto American media, policy makers and American public to act swiftly and change American policy in meaningful manner in order to ensure that Pakistan gets all the required resources to win this war on terror, especially battle of Swat. War in Swat is no ordinary war, it will definitely have deep and long lasting impact on the security of whole world.
